qerranews 
A leading crypto analyst suggests that Bitcoin could surpass its previous all-time high of $109,000 much faster than many expect, despite prevailing macroeconomic uncertainties in the U.S. Jamie Coutts, the chief crypto analyst at Real Vision, has predicted that Bitcoin may hit $123,000 by June in an optimistic scenario based on his DXY (US Dollar Index) backtest.
Bitcoin’s Unexpected Surge Potential
According to Coutts, the market may not fully grasp how quickly Bitcoin could gain momentum and reach new all-time highs before the second quarter of 2025 concludes. He asserts that this outlook remains intact regardless of concerns over U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs and the looming risk of an economic recession.
Bitcoin’s price recently dipped below $100,000 on February 2, following the introduction of new tariffs by the Trump administration. Many market participants attribute Bitcoin’s downward trend to these tariffs and ongoing uncertainty regarding U.S. interest rates. However, Coutts remains confident in a rebound, citing multiple factors that could support Bitcoin’s rise.
Easing Financial Conditions and a Weakening Dollar
Coutts’ bullish stance is largely based on the recent relaxation of financial conditions, a weakening U.S. dollar, and increased liquidity from the People’s Bank of China since early 2025. He highlights that financial conditions have improved dramatically in March, as reflected in the U.S. dollar’s third-largest three-day decline since 2015, alongside a drop in interest rates and bond market volatility.
“Liquidity remains central to investing in all asset classes,” Coutts emphasized, pointing out that these conditions create a favorable environment for Bitcoin’s price appreciation.
As of the time of publication, Bitcoin is trading at $85,880, marking a 3.16% decline over the past month, according to CoinMarketCap.
DXY Backtest Suggests Bitcoin Could Reach $123K by June
In a recent social media post on March 7, Coutts examined the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) through a historical perspective, which led him to a bullish Bitcoin outlook. His analysis suggests that if Bitcoin follows historical DXY trends, its price could range between a worst-case scenario of $102,000 and a best-case scenario of $123,000 by June 1.
If Bitcoin reaches the upper target of $123,000, it would represent a 13% increase from its all-time high of $109,000, which was recorded on January 20.
Bitcoin’s Role in a Recessionary Environment
BlackRock’s head of digital assets, Robbie Mitchnick, recently stated that Bitcoin has the potential to thrive in a recessionary macroeconomic climate. In a March 19 interview with Yahoo Finance, Mitchnick suggested that a possible U.S. recession could serve as a significant catalyst for Bitcoin’s price appreciation.
“I don’t know if we’ll have a recession or not, but a recession would be a big catalyst for Bitcoin,” Mitchnick said.
Bitcoin’s Current Market Conditions
Despite the bullish forecasts from analysts, some indicators suggest Bitcoin may still be in a weak market phase. According to CryptoQuant’s Bull Score Index, Bitcoin is currently experiencing its least bullish conditions since January 2023. The index, which measures the strength of Bitcoin’s market momentum, is at 20—its lowest level in over two years.
Historically, if the Bull Score Index remains below 40 for an extended period, it has often signaled prolonged bearish conditions, resembling previous bear markets.
Conclusion
While Bitcoin’s recent market performance has been relatively subdued, analysts like Jamie Coutts remain optimistic about its future price trajectory. With easing financial conditions, a weaker U.S. dollar, and increasing global liquidity, Bitcoin may be poised for a rapid surge beyond its previous all-time high. If Bitcoin follows historical trends, it could reach as high as $123,000 by June, defying current market skepticism. However, factors such as potential recession risks, macroeconomic uncertainties, and bearish technical indicators may still present challenges along the way.